Economics

U.S. Home Prices Continue to Face Uphill Battle

July 29, 2014

Economists expect the May S&P/Case Shiller index of the composite 20 cities home prices to be 9.9 percent higher than year ago levels. Los Angeles, Washington DC, San Diego, and San Francisco have the largest index values of the 20 areas. None have equaled their pre-recession peaks and remain a fraction of mid-2006

Part-Time Workers’ Sentiment Shows Progress on Slack

July 22, 2014

In June, part-time workers enjoyed outsized gains in the Bloomberg consumer comfort index relative to both unemployed and full-time employed. Given June’s simultaneous increase in part-time workers and decrease in the long-term unemployed, this may reflect the relief of people who are once again receiving paychecks. If they don’t sustain these gains, that

Lower Prices May Result in Weaker U.S. Retail Sales

July 15, 2014

Economists polled by Bloomberg expect total retail sales to advance 0.6 percent in June after May’s 0.3 percent increase. Flat-to-slightly lower prices might result in a weaker-than-expected performance. This report is not adjusted for inflation, so it is difficult to distinguish whether sales trends are because of prices or volumes.

Jobless Claims Point Toward Better U.S. Growth

July 14, 2014

  During the last five decades, the quarterly average of the 4-week average of initial jobless claims has been a reasonably good predictor of GDP growth. This chart was taken from the Bloomberg Brief Economics Newsletter. Click here to take a 30 day trial. 

ABENOMICS vs THE DEFLATION MONSTER

July 14, 2014

A year and a half into Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s attempt to lift Japan’s economy from its two-decade stagnation, policy makers say Abenomics is on track. Inflation has moved higher, corporate profits are up and businesses are starting to invest again. Not everyone is so optimistic. The Nikkei is the worst performing major market in

U.S. Pending Home Sales Recovery Lags in West

July 1, 2014

Pending Home Sales in the west, although improving, are lagging those in the douth, despite a consistent alignment in their homebuilder sentiment indexes. If anything, the west’s sentiment has been a little stronger. These two regional indexes have held at their historically widest spread since mid-2013, suggesting that either the west’s index will

Stalled Wage Growth May Threaten Household Wealth Surge

June 13, 2014

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U.S. Dollar

January 28, 2014