China’s Manufactured-Export Edge Isn’t Deteriorating

October 7, 2014

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Regional Pending Home Sales Dent Headline Figure

September 30, 2014

While pending sales of existing homes had an unexpectedly large decline in August, the losses were concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Still, the headline figure further dims the view of the summer selling season, which was once expected to rebound after its late and fitful start. The headline index declined 1

Chile, Brazil Sell More Goods to China Than to the U.S.

September 23, 2014

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Latin America Pacific Alliance

September 22, 2014

As Brazil slipped into recession this year, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru emerged as the backbone of a region that has often disappointed investors. Unlike Argentina and Venezuela, the four Pacific Alliance countries embraced reforms, foreign investors and orthodox monetary and fiscal policy. Unlike Brazil, a hands-off policy with the

Brazil Election Special

September 16, 2014

SPECIAL REPORT: THE BRAZILIAN ELECTION DOWNLOAD ** Outlook for the Oct. 5 polls: who’s running, what’s at stake, analysis of the polls ** Profiles of the main candidates: Marina Silva, Dilma Rousseff, Aecio Neves ** Equity market outlook: in a lower growth, higher inflation economy, Brazilian companies have become less

Weak U.S. Industrial Production Likely to Be a One-Off

September 16, 2014

The industrial production report should be scored as weak, though not very likely to be sustained. Industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent in August, in most part due to a 7.6 percent slump in motor vehicle and parts production. It’s hard to believe that a weak auto production-influenced report is sustainable, especially with

Growth in Trade Shows Fed No Longer Stands Alone

September 2, 2014

There was encouraging news in the second estimate of second quarter GDP. Total trade posted its largest combined percentage gain since 2010, before the European crisis began in earnest. While the growth in imports actually subtracts from U.S. GDP as an accounting matter, it reflects stronger demand from U.S. firms and consumers. The

Barometers Suggest U.S. Economy to Grow 3% in Third Quarter

August 26, 2014

U.S. economic activity grew an average of 1 percent in the first half — the product of a steep 2.1 percent contraction during the first three months of the year, and a sharp 4 percent rebound in the second quarter. All eyes are focused on third-quarter performance to see how strong, or frail, the recovery effort has

Homebuilder Optimism Continues to Outshine Activity

August 19, 2014

The increase in the NAHB housing market index to 55 in August from 53 extended the divergence between homebuilder sentiment and most other major housing market data releases, most of which have been disappointing recently. During the past two months, the most important development was the surge in foot traffic in the two

Fed Monitoring JOLTS Report for Clues to Labor Slack

August 12, 2014

JOLTS Report (Survey, 4.600 million; Prior: 4.635 million): Now that the jobs opening rate has begun to pick up, the question is whether hiring and quits will rise as well. The FOMC will be closely attuned to indications that job creation is accelerating and workers are gaining confidence. This report is thought to