Since the U.S. government shutdown came to an end on Oct. 17, attention has turned to its potential lasting effects on the economy. A consensus emerged early on of output losses, but data from our global survey of finance professionals suggest a more nuanced picture. Click here to continue reading sample article. Please note full access is available to subscribers.
Friday’s U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report will show major distortions due to the recent government shutdown and seasonal increases in state and local government hiring linked to education. The result will probably be a below-trend pace of hiring for the month and an increase in the unemployment rate. Click here to continue reading sample article.
Investors are demonstrating their eagerness to own dollar junk bonds by pushing yields to the least relative to high-grade debt since before the credit crisis. Click HERE for more.
September’s nonfarm payrolls report showed 148,000 jobs were created, versus expectations of 180,000, a negative surprise of 32,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the prior month’s payrolls were revised up to 193,000 from 169,000, an increase of 24,000. Click here to continue reading sample article.
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Federal Reserve policy actions have not rigidly followed the interest-rate path recommended by a conventional Taylor Rule during the past decade. Click HERE for more.
Penn Virginia may sell assets to pay down a revolving line of credit as it seeks to cut indebtedness and gain positive free cash flow by 2016. Click HERE for more.
The U.S. economy is clearly transitioning to a “new normal.” Considering the weak trend in demographics and productivity growth, the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy could be considerably slower than its 2.5-3.0 percent normal pace, with the likelihood that potential GDP in real terms will probably average only around 1.75-2.00 percent in coming years. Click here to continue reading.
The growth outlook for the final three months of the year should brighten somewhat as consumers pick up the pace of spending during the holiday shopping season and as business fixed investment rebounds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted it will probably wait to reduce the pace of its asset purchase program until spring next year, which should help support improved financial conditions and equity [...]
Asia’s fundamentals, in particular those of Southeast Asia and India, have deteriorated over the last two years. Still, it is both inappropriate and misleading to equate the present situation with that in 1997, the year of the Asian financial crisis. Ranging from measures of external vulnerability to financial system soundness, the present situation is significantly superior. Click here to continue reading the [...]