The growth outlook for the final three months of the year should brighten somewhat as consumers pick up the pace of spending during the holiday shopping season and as business fixed investment rebounds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted it will probably wait to reduce the pace of its asset purchase program until spring next year, which should help support improved financial conditions and equity [...]
Asia’s fundamentals, in particular those of Southeast Asia and India, have deteriorated over the last two years. Still, it is both inappropriate and misleading to equate the present situation with that in 1997, the year of the Asian financial crisis. Ranging from measures of external vulnerability to financial system soundness, the present situation is significantly superior. Click here to continue reading the [...]
Another week without top tier government economic data forces market participants to look at secondary and tertiary barometers, as well as anecdotes. There’s no better place to appreciate the true underlying tone of the economy today than the Bloomberg Orange Book. Click here to continue reading.
China is on the verge of gaining direct access to a second ocean from its mainland, a geopolitical gain that rarely occurs in an age of generally fixed country borders. The gain is due to years of infrastructure spending and a targeted international development project in Myanmar. China has been deeply involved with Myanmar’s port system and Irrawaddy River development. At the same [...]
The 19 percent increase in the Case-Shiller home price index since March 2012 is widely thought to have boosted the prospects for overall household spending via the “wealth effect” transmitted by rising prices and cash out efinancing. Cash out refinancing activity bottomed in the second quarter of 2011 when homeowners extracted $9.5 billion from their homes. Click here to continue reading.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve’s probable policy shift at the upcoming Sept. 17-18 meeting to begin paring back the pace of its asset purchase program poses a challenge to investor allocation decisions. The Fed’s low-interest rate policy has achieved some success in boosting risk-taking among investors. Some measures of U.S. equities valuations, Tobin’s ‘Q’ for example, have moved back to fair value after recording severely undervalued readings during the Great Recession. Click here [...]
Currency traders should be paying more attention to the middle and the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve than the short end. To continue reading click here
Investors in Asia face a pending withdrawal of Federal Reserve liquidity and simultaneous stresses in the region’s three largest economies. China is slowing investment to rebalance its economy toward consumption, while Japan is debasing its currency to stoke exports, and India is caught in a vicious circle of weaker investment and growth. Click here to continue reading.
NEWS: The Shanghai Composite Index surged as much as 5.6 percent in the biggest intraday jump since March 2009, spurring the exchange to investigate the spike. Angela Merkel said the European debt crisis hasn’t been overcome as she repeated in a speech that governments should cut debt. To read more, click here.