Click here for CHART.
Federal Reserve policy actions have not rigidly followed the interest-rate path recommended by a conventional Taylor Rule during the past decade. Click HERE for more.
Penn Virginia may sell assets to pay down a revolving line of credit as it seeks to cut indebtedness and gain positive free cash flow by 2016. Click HERE for more.
The U.S. economy is clearly transitioning to a “new normal.” Considering the weak trend in demographics and productivity growth, the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy could be considerably slower than its 2.5-3.0 percent normal pace, with the likelihood that potential GDP in real terms will probably average only around 1.75-2.00 percent in coming years. Click here to continue reading.
The growth outlook for the final three months of the year should brighten somewhat as consumers pick up the pace of spending during the holiday shopping season and as business fixed investment rebounds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted it will probably wait to reduce the pace of its asset purchase program until spring next year, which should help support improved financial conditions and equity [...]
Asia’s fundamentals, in particular those of Southeast Asia and India, have deteriorated over the last two years. Still, it is both inappropriate and misleading to equate the present situation with that in 1997, the year of the Asian financial crisis. Ranging from measures of external vulnerability to financial system soundness, the present situation is significantly superior. Click here to continue reading the [...]
Another week without top tier government economic data forces market participants to look at secondary and tertiary barometers, as well as anecdotes. There’s no better place to appreciate the true underlying tone of the economy today than the Bloomberg Orange Book. Click here to continue reading.
China is on the verge of gaining direct access to a second ocean from its mainland, a geopolitical gain that rarely occurs in an age of generally fixed country borders. The gain is due to years of infrastructure spending and a targeted international development project in Myanmar. China has been deeply involved with Myanmar’s port system and Irrawaddy River development. At the same [...]
The 19 percent increase in the Case-Shiller home price index since March 2012 is widely thought to have boosted the prospects for overall household spending via the “wealth effect” transmitted by rising prices and cash out efinancing. Cash out refinancing activity bottomed in the second quarter of 2011 when homeowners extracted $9.5 billion from their homes. Click here to continue reading.
Download our new Real Estate Supplement here.