Economics >>>

    Nonfarm Payrolls Revisions Foreshadow End of Hiring Cycle

    September’s nonfarm payrolls report showed 148,000 jobs were created, versus expectations of 180,000, a negative surprise of 32,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the prior month’s payrolls were revised up to 193,000 from 169,000, an increase of 24,000. Click here to continue reading sample article.


    Taylor Rule Estimates of the Fed Funds Rate

    Click here for CHART.


    Fed Looks Beyond Taylor Rule to Justify Policy Rate

    Federal Reserve policy actions have not rigidly followed the interest-rate path recommended by a conventional Taylor Rule during the past decade. Click HERE for more.


    Penn Virginia Considers Asset Sales to Repay Revolver

    Penn Virginia may sell assets to pay down a revolving line of credit as it seeks to cut indebtedness and gain positive free cash flow by 2016. Click HERE for more.


    Slower ‘New Normal’ U.S. Growth May Cap Interest Rates

    The U.S. economy is clearly transitioning to a “new normal.” Considering the weak trend in demographics and productivity growth, the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy could be considerably slower than its 2.5-3.0 percent normal pace, with the likelihood that potential GDP in real terms will probably average only around 1.75-2.00 percent in coming years. Click here to continue reading.


    U.S. Output Gap Weighs on Fourth-Quarter Growth Prospects

    The growth outlook for the final three months of the year should brighten somewhat as consumers pick up the pace of spending during the holiday shopping season and as business fixed investment rebounds. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted it will probably wait to reduce the pace of its asset purchase program until spring next year, which should help support improved financial conditions and equity [...]


    Replay of 1997 Crisis Unlikely Even With Recent Imbalances

      Asia’s fundamentals, in particular those of Southeast Asia and India, have deteriorated over the last two years. Still, it is both inappropriate and misleading to equate the present situation with that in 1997, the year of the Asian financial crisis. Ranging from measures of external vulnerability to financial system soundness, the present situation is significantly superior. Click here to continue reading the [...]


    Orange Signal Flashing on U.S. Economy’s Dashboard

    Another week without top tier government economic data forces market participants to look at secondary and tertiary barometers, as well as anecdotes. There’s no better place to appreciate the true underlying tone of the economy today than the Bloomberg Orange Book. Click here to continue reading.


    Indian ocean Access May open up China’s West

    China is on the verge of gaining direct access to a second ocean from its mainland, a geopolitical gain that rarely occurs in an age of generally fixed country borders. The gain is due to years of infrastructure spending and a targeted international development project in Myanmar. China has been deeply involved with Myanmar’s port system and Irrawaddy River development. At the same [...]


    Home Price Revival Not Yet Supporting Higher Spending

    The 19 percent increase in the Case-Shiller home price index since March 2012 is widely thought to have boosted the prospects for overall household spending via the “wealth effect” transmitted by rising prices and cash out efinancing. Cash out refinancing activity bottomed in the second quarter of 2011 when homeowners extracted $9.5 billion from their homes. Click here to continue reading.    


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