The U.S. economic expansion will probably continue in 2013 at last year’s subdued pace. A substantial fiscal drag as payroll taxes are reset back to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent, and an increase in income taxes on households earning more than $450,000, will both play a major role in this slow growth scenario. Fiscal restraint, weak wage growth and muted household expenditures all indicate [...]
2013 US Eco Outlook from Bloomberg Briefs
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GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS AND STRATEGIES MICHAEL R. ROSENBERG To access the Financial Conditions Watch click here
The Federal Reserve’s decision to link the outlook for interest rates to unemployment and inflation targets for the first time means that its balance sheet may expand by about 75 percent to $5 trillion in the next few years. Click here to continue reading.
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The economy added 146,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, considerably stronger than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 87,000 jobs created. Unfortunately, this job creation is overwhelmingly limited to low-wage sectors, continuing the trend established in the early stage of the recovery which is compressing the level of average hourly earnings to its lowest level on record. The recovery will continue to wane as long as [...]
The November employment report will require more interpretation than usual to account for both the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the changes in industry hiring trends that are behind the recent improvement in jobs gains. The hurricane affected an area responsible for about 16 percent of overall U.S. output. Click here to continue reading.
Commentary by Joseph Brusuelas, Bloomberg Economist With the U.S. House of Representatives scheduled to adjourn until next year on Dec. 14, policy makers are now on a strict deadline to act in time to prevent a fiscal shock that may push a fragile economy into recession in the first quarter. The combination of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take [...]
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