The economy added 146,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, considerably stronger than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 87,000 jobs created. Unfortunately, this job creation is overwhelmingly limited to low-wage sectors, continuing the trend established in the early stage of the recovery which is compressing the level of average hourly earnings to its lowest level on record. The recovery will continue to wane as long as [...]
The November employment report will require more interpretation than usual to account for both the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the changes in industry hiring trends that are behind the recent improvement in jobs gains. The hurricane affected an area responsible for about 16 percent of overall U.S. output. Click here to continue reading.
Commentary by Joseph Brusuelas, Bloomberg Economist With the U.S. House of Representatives scheduled to adjourn until next year on Dec. 14, policy makers are now on a strict deadline to act in time to prevent a fiscal shock that may push a fragile economy into recession in the first quarter. The combination of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take [...]
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U.S. GDP was revised higher in the third quarter to 2.7 percent from an initial estimate of 2.0 percent. While the headline number appears positive on the surface, the strong increase was driven in large part by a near doubling in the level of private inventories. Increased inventory stockpiling in this case is probably a function of unwanted merchandise as consumer stress mounts. To [...]
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Guest Commentary by Kristin Bentz, PMG Venture Group With the U.S. elections over, investor focus, when not trained on the so-called fiscal cliff, is now beginning to turn toward the approaching holiday shopping season. The Friday after Thanksgiving, known as ‘Black Friday,’ is perceived by many to be busiest and most important shopping day of the year. It is not well understood by [...]
China’s goal of doubling per capita income by 2020 — which was discussed at the 18th Communist Party Congress that concluded yesterday — is likely to help place the country on the right track to sustainable growth. Still, the reform agenda will take years to implement, and change is not guaranteed. In the near term, a fiscal-led turnaround in fourth-quarter GDP growth is [...]
This morning’s October retail sales report will be the first leading monthly data series to reflect the impact of Hurricane Sandy. The report will probably document a transitory shift in the composition of demand away from household discretionary items toward consumer staples and building materials. Due to some homeowners’ lack of flood insurance and the slow nature of the rebuilding process after Hurricane [...]
Economists polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia forecast U.S. economic activity to cool to 2.0 percent in 2013 from an anticipated 2.2 percent increase in 2012. This is a pace traditionally associated with an economy teetering on the brink of recession. The Bank’s latest survey of professional forecasters shows monthly nonfarm payroll growth expectations are for 155,600 in 2012 and [...]